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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-02-02T23:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-02-02T23:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36785/-1
CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the East by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-02-02T23:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 in later frames. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 02/15:23Z. The source of this CME is an M4.1 flare from Active Region 3981 (N05E25) beginning at 02/23:04Z. This flare can be seen in SDO AIA 131 along with field line opening seen exhibiting a Southern deflection seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-07T06:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-06T07:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-02-03T04:57Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 590
Longitude (deg): E019
Latitude (deg): S18
Half-angular width (deg): 25

Notes: Limited clear imagery available for cone fit, so low confidence.
Space weather advisor: TG

Lead Time: 88.40 hour(s)
Difference: 23.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-02-03T14:00Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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